Baker pointed to some statistics gathered at the agency's wildlife management areas as an example of early-season success. "Last year, the best hunting we had on our WMAs was that first three-day weekend after Thanksgiving," he offered. "That was true at all of our WMAs in the Delta. We also had fair-to-good hunting that next weekend, but then it really slowed down. It would appear that once our hunters had shot the original flight -- the early arrivers -- we didn't get another migration to replenish."

Reduce that to a smaller scale -- to a leaseholder with limitations on the number of blinds and the amount of shootable water -- and it's obvious that one or two mornings of heavy action can ruin the area. "It may sound overly simple as a way to improve your hunting, but it works," Baker said. "It is a proven fact that if you limit your hunting to early morning and space out your hunts, you can have more consistent hunting."

It took Lee Benoist and his hunting partners a while to learn that lesson. "We finally started listening a few years ago and we saw the improvement immediately," he said. "We have a good lease, and it will always have water that we don't have to pump. If there are ducks in the area of the south Delta that we hunt, then our hole will have ducks.

"We have now learned that even if the rest of the area loses its ducks we can still hold some if we don't shoot them all up and chase the rest of them away. We have accepted the fact that one or two limit hunts does not a season make. We finally figured out that it is a lot better to have a season-full of three-to-four-duck days than a couple of limit hunts early."

So can Mississippi have a good season in 2007-08?

As already remarked, trends tell us not to expect a great one, even if duck numbers stay stable or even increase. Predicting the kind of winter that the upper Midwest will experience is impossible -- but this much is certain: A late winter up there will bode ill for a good duck season in Mississippi. And all recent winters have been mild to warm, at least until well into January.

"I had great hopes last year," Benoist said. "Remember when we had that really cold blast in November and we had those ducks come in before Thanksgiving? If I remember correctly, we really didn't see another cold front that severe until January.

"I kept hearing all my deer hunting buddies complaining about how hot it was, and I kept telling them that if they thought it was tough on them, think how bad it was for duck hunters. It was awful. Last year was one of those winters when it only helped us a little while to be protective of the ducks we had. Eventually, even the low pressure we were putting on them was too much."

All duck hunters know that they're at the mercy of things well beyond their control. Mother Nature controls over 90 percent of the factors that affect the Mississippi duck season.

That control begins in late spring with nesting conditions in the upper Midwest and Canada. If water is furnished to ponds and potholes, then duck numbers are at least maintained, or perhaps slightly increased; if it's not forthcoming, they decrease. Predation on the nesting areas is another factor. How many hatchlings will survive?

Whether Mississippi will suffer from drought and whether it will have sufficient natural habitat to attract wintering waterfowl: both important influences, both unpredictable and ungovernable. At least through the early summer, it appeared that we'd be dry in 2007.

And finally, the winter scenario, the most critical, indeed, the deciding factor in our recent hunting seasons. Mother Nature hasn't sent us an early and continuously cold winter in many years, nor a winter with continuous passing cold fronts to deliver wave after wave of migration.

We can argue about the causes of global warming -- natural? arising from human activity? -- but we can't dispute that the current cycle of warm winters has been unkind to Mississippi waterfowlers. And no reason to expect that cycle to end this winter is now on the horizon -- but it could happen. And a cold winter could cure a lot of cases of duck hunting blues.